Golden Globe Awards: Predicting the 73rd Ceremony

Original Post can be found at GoodTrash Media

 The 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards – Film

Hello Dear Listener, and welcome to our preview ofGolden Globe Awards the Golden Globe awards. The Golden Globes air this Sunday, January 10th, at 8PM EST/7PM CST. For the first part of this column Caleb Masters – co-host of Back to the Movies, GoodTrash GenreCast, and regular contributor to Renegade Cinema – and Arthur Gordon – co-host of GoodTrash GenreCast and Back to the Movies – sit down to take a look at the twelve movie related categories that will be awarded at the annual Hollywood Foreign Press ceremony. We will break down each category, talk about who should win, and then predict who will win.

Best Motion Picture: Drama

Nominees: Carol, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Room, Spotlight
CALEB:
Thoughts: The winner of the Drama category is a tough nut to crack with every contender having been showered with critical acclaim upon their initial release. It would amazing to see a genre film like Mad Max: Fury Road take the big one, but chances are the HFPA sticks to something that’s a bit more traditional. Spotlight would be the very finest pick, but given the lack of nominations in the other major categories, its chances are slim. The Revenant and Carol are the other two major frontrunners thanks to the talent involved (Leo, Blanchette). That leaves Room which has received less buzz than the other nominees, but the strong performers and “indie darling” appeal could lead to a surprise as a dark horse win.carol_1-620x412

Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who Will Win: Carol – The overwhelming number of nominations in the other categories are a pretty clear indicator for this film’s favor from the HFPA. Between Cate Blanchett and the subject matter, it’s got just enough bait to woe votes and just enough teeth to be a film for the history books.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: The Drama category is tough this year as Mad Max sticks out like a sore thumb. Carol seems to be the only true competition for Miller’s furious action flick. Room is the dark horse of the group, a small independent film with a lot of critical acclaim; I would expect it to have a stronger performance at the Independent Spirit Awards while being overlooked by the HFPA. Spotlight has the acclaim, but with no action nominations and only direction and screenwriting nods it doesn’t feel like it has any true momentum. This category comes down to Mad Max and
Carol
and I think that Max has a lot of momentum from most of the critic’s circles right now.

Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Who Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road – The HFPA are a little “cooler” and “hipper” than the academy and they like to push the envelope; I can see them fully backing Miller’s road epic.

Best Motion Picture: Comedy/Musical
Nominees: The Big Short, Joy, The Martian, Spy, Trainwreck

 CALEB:
Thoughts: This category is an unusual beast this year with The Martian making the cut despite being a hugely dramatic flick and Joy being nominated because ‘what’s an award show without a David O. Russel/J-Law?’. The Martian may be one of the best movies of the year, but I just can’t give it a blessing in the “Best Comedy/Musical” category. Spy is just another copy/paste McCarthy comedy that happens to star Jason Statham as the perfect foil, but it just doesn’t seem up to par with the other nominees. Adam McKay’s The Big Short is nothing short of a masterpiece and is easily the most deserving film in this category. The only thing standing in its way is the huge critical hit from last summer Trainwreck. If there’s one thing the HFPA likes more than a film attacking the christian-bale-steve-carell-the-big-short-01-600x350banks, its Amy Schumer who has proven herself a force to be reckoned with in 2015.

Who Should Win: The Big Short

Who Will Win: The Big Short – Its subject matter is just as relevant as ever and its writing, direction, and acting are all top notch.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: Let’s be honest, Joy is a token nomination that is only here to get J-Law in attendance and on the ballot. She’s Hollywood’s “It Girl” and the closest thing they have to an old school movie star not named Meryl. Spy also feels like a token nomination to round out the category. We easily could have gotten Kingsman or Me and Earl and the Dying Girl here and had a stronger category. The real contenders are down to Schumer’s surprise hit from the summer, the Matt Damon vehicle, and Adam McKay’s surprising comedy. The Martian feels out of place and I think it’s because they knew they wouldn’t be able to compete in the drama category; I feel like it is also too out of place to win in the comedy category as well. I strongly see McKay’s Big Short winning, but something inside tells me not to count out Schumer/Apatow.

Who Should Win: Trainwreck

Who Will Win: Trainwreck – I feel like this has been a strong year for females on screen, and I think the HFPA is going to ride that wave and go with Trainwreck.

Best Director:
Nominees: Todd Haynes – Carol, George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road, Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant, Ridley Scott – The Martian, Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

 CALEB:
Thoughts: The Best Director category may be the most competitive at this year’s Golden Globes. It’s possible Inarritu could take a victory lap for The Revenant as a follow up to last year’s Birdman, but I think the HFPA is more likely to go with George Miller for his masterful work on Mad Max or Todd Haynes’ boldness for Carol. None of us saw Tom McCarthy coming with Spotlight and I’d be lying if I said he didn’t deserve grade-A recognition for delivering one of the most powerful films of the year. Ridley Scott deserves a handshake and a high-five for delivering one of his strongest films in the last ten years, but nothing about the film really feels uniquely Ridley Scott.

Who Should Win: George Miller

Who Will Win: At 70 years old George Miller proved he’s a miracle worker who has just as much vision and energy as any writer/director working in the industry. In an era of auteurs aging past their prime, that’s no small feat.

tom-hardy-mad-max-fury-roadARTHUR:
Thoughts: Again, the frontrunners here have to be Carol’s Haynes and Fury Road’s Miller. Inarritu is riding momentum from his strong showing last year and Ridley Scott has made a beautiful piece. McCarthy did a near perfect job with Spotlight, but it’s not flashy or showy; it is a very subtle direction with a focus on the story and the actors and it’s brilliant, but I don’t think it’s enough. I honestly would have liked to see Adam McKay here for The Big Short, oh well.

Who Should Win: Tom McCarthy

Who Will Win: I’m not going to be upset however when George Miller’s name is called to walk across the stage.

Best Screenplay
Nominees: Aaron Sorkin – Steve Jobs, Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight, Emma Donahue – Room, Tom McCarthy/Josh Singer – Spotlight, Charles Randolph/Adam McKay – The Big Short

CALEB:
Thoughts: This category is an epic battle between two of the most famous working screen writers with Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight and Sorkin’s Steve Jobs. Despite the fact that neither of these scripts are the writers’ strongest, nobody in this category even stands a chance, at least not in the eyes of the HFPA. Spotlight was an exceptional film, but there was nothing particularly unique or intricate about the script. My personal favorite is the The Big Short thanks to its ability to describe incredibly complex financial systems in  a way that us lay people could understand and enjoy.

Who Should Win: The Big Short

Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin – It’s not his strongest script, but that doesn’t mean Steve Jobs doesn’t have its obama-made-everyone-cringe-with-his-gushing-praise-of-aaron-sorkinmoments of undeniable brilliance. Tarantino poses a real challenge, but The Hateful Eight has been less well received than his prior films.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: The Big Short does something great by breaking down these inaccessible terms and ideas and making them understandable to the layman. And, Spotlight has a very good story, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of depth there; it is a well told story with good dialogue. Not having seen Room, I can’t speak much to the script; again, it is the dark horse of the Globes. The battle here is between Sorkin and Tarantino – two of the best screenwriters in the business. I’ve heard mixed reactions to Tarantino’s script, and many say that Sorkin’s is just hard to keep up with.

Who Should Win: Aaron Sorkin

Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin – Steve Jobs isn’t a perfect movie, but it is Aaron Sorkin’s movie despite Danny Boyle’s best efforts. The script is hard to keep up with, but if you can it has some phenomenal moments. Luckily, at the Oscars, both Tarantino and Sorkin can go home with a trophy.

Best Foreign Language Film:
Nominees: The Brand New Testament, The Club, The Fencer, Mustang, Son of Saul

CALEB:
Thoughts: I’m a bit out of it in the foreign language categories this year so I don’t have much to bring to the conversation.

Who Should Win:

Who Will Win: Son of Saul – This film has the most buzz and success of any of the film nominated. Especially when it comes to the Foreign categories, the popular film almost always wins.

son-of-saul-cannes-film-festivalARTHUR:
Thoughts: I’ll admit I can’t say much to this category. I haven’t been able to catch any of the nominees, so I’m going to go with the one that I’ve actually have heard of and which is getting a lot of buzz.

Who Should Win: Son of Saul

Who Will Win: Son of Saul – The Holocaust is always a strong subject and very award bait; also, the director makes some very interesting creative choices through which to tell his story.

Best Actor: Drama
Nominees: Bryan Cranston – Trumbo, Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant, Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs, Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl, Will Smith – Concussion.

CALEB:
Thoughts:  It’s exciting to see so many talented actors in this category, but not having seen The Revenant or Trumbo, it’s hard to tell whether any of these performances are the the best work these guys have done. Michael Fassbender is probably my favorite on the list, but Steve Jobs simply isn’t his best role. Eddie Redmayne is reaching for just about every bait-y role he can get his hands on for more gold and Will Smith is pushing extremely hard to bring his career back in a meaningful way. I can’t say any of these would be my picks, but hey, that’s why this is therevenant-02_612x380_0Globes and not the Oscars.

Who Should Win: Leo DiCaprio

Who Will Win: Leo DiCaprio – At this point, DiCaprio’s lack of an Oscar is one of the biggest inside Hollywood baseball jokes in recent history. My bet is HFPA gives Leo another Globe as a way to shove its middle finger in the Academy’s face.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: Redmayne seems to be reaching Tom Hanks levels of critical love and appreciation. His showing last year during awards season was proof of that. Smith and Fassbender seem to be token nominees to round out the category; both give strong performances, but they didn’t seem to stand out from the crowd. I think Cranston gives a great performance as Dalton Trumbo and he puts everything into shaping the character; from his voice, to his physical movements and characteristics – it’s a very good turn from Cranston. But, Leo goes all out as well – and while he is always the bridesmaid at the Academy, I think the HFPA will put a ring on that finger.

Who Should Win: Cranston/DiCaprio

Who Will Win: DiCaprio – In a continued effort to set themselves apart from the Academy, the Globe will go to DiCaprio to further bolster his resume and hopefully give him some momentum.

Best Actor: Comedy/Musical
Nominees: Christian Bale – The Big Short, Steve Carell – The Big Short, Matt Damon – The Martian, Al Pacino – Danny Collins, Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear

CALEB:
Thoughts: Wait, since when did Infinitely Polar Bear become the public title of Spotlight? Glad to see Ruffalo in a nomination, but I’m completely shocked to see it for such strange movie. Matt Damon may know how to science the shit out of intergalactic home and gardening, but even his mad character acting skills can’t compete with Steve Carrell or Christian Bale from The Big Short. Both actors turn in some of the best roles of their careers. I’m not completely sure which of them takes the gold, but both are more than deserving.

Who Should Win: Steve Carrell / Christian Bale

bigshortWho Will Win: Arthur’s point about Bale’s prestige is accurate, but given Carrell’s growing critical momentum over the last few years, I think both have a fair shot.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: I don’t think you can go wrong with any of these performers. All of them hand stand out showings. Honestly, I wouldn’t be upset to see any of them take a win. But, realistically, Pacino seems like the longshot and I feel like Ruffalo got nominated for the wrong movie. I see this as a race between Bale, Damon, and Carrell. I would love to see Carrell take it home; I think it would bring a lot of legitimacy to his career. But, Bale’s turn in The Big Short is nothing to laugh at. He has an uncanny ability to transform into whoever he wants. He’s the next Gary Oldman in that regard. This could also be Damon’s chance to build some momentum for the Oscar. I’m really torn here.

Who Should Win: Steve Carrell

Who Will Win: Christian Bale – I think he has the momentum and respect of his peers and mainstream appeal which will be enough to get the votes.

Best Actress: Drama
Nominees: Cate Blanchett – Carol, Brie Larson – Room, Rooney Mara – Carol, Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn, Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

CALEB:
Thoughts: It’s time I come completely clean and admit that I haven’t actually seen any of these films. Based on the heat coming of these actresses, I’m bettering the globe goes to either Cate Blanchett or Rooney Mara from Carol. Blanchett’s reputation for picking award bait-y roles goes back a couple of decades, but the HFPA tends to bet on the up and comers.

Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander – Because I loved her so much in Ex Machina

Who Will Win: Rooney Mara – Because you can’t catch ’em all Blanchett!

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: Rooney Mara has momentum with the win at Cannes and I think she’s the outside favorite. file_607874_carol-clip-cannesI’d hate to bet against Blanchett though. I would love to see Brie Larson take it home but her stock is only on the rise and will have opportunities. This could be Saoirse’s coming out moment and a chance to crown another “it girl”. She always puts in strong performances and she’s just charming and lovely. Alicia is having a break out year though, and I would like to see her walk away with some gold.

Who Should Win: Rooney Mara

Who Will Win: Rooney Mara – I think it is her time. She’s got the momentum and she’s been nominated before.

Best Actress: Comedy/Musical
Nominees: Jennifer Lawrence – Joy, Melissa McCarthy – Spy, Amy Schumer – Trainwreck, Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van, Lily Tomlin – Grandma

CALEB:
Thoughts: I’ve already said all I’ve got to say about Joy and Spy in the Best Comedy category and the same thought applies here. Maggie Smith is always deserving of all the love she gets, but absolutely nothing can stop the Amy Schumer from taking the globe. She wrote and starred in Trainwreck which would have been far and away the best comedy of the year had it not been for The Big Short.

Who Should Win: Amy Schumer

Who Will Win: Amy Schumer – After bursting onto the scene with Inside Amy Schumer in 2013, this lady has been amy_schumerdestined to rise in the ranks as one of Hollywood’s darlings. Is there really any other choice here?


ARTHUR
:
Thoughts: Joy was a mess, but J-Law did a great job in it. McCarthy was a lot of fun, but it wasn’t anything new for her. Maggie and Lily seem to have received the “the nomination is recognition enough” nods. Schumer’s turn as screenwriter and lead actress may be enough. And, going along with my line of thinking in the comedy category this could be a chance for the HFPA to make a statement.

Who Should Win: Amy Schumer

Who Will Win: Amy Schumer – She was great, what do you want from me.

Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, Inside Out, The Peanuts Movie, Shaun the Sheep

CALEB:
Thoughts: After have a few off years, Pixar is back and posed to take the thrones for the masterpiece that is Inside Out. The Good Dinosaur may be a huge misstep for the acclaimed studio, but even it can’t put a damper on one of the finest films Pixar has ever produced. Shaun the Sheep and The Peanuts Movie are good fun, but never quite rise to become anything particularly special. I have not seen Anomalisa, but my feel is that even if it’s the superior film, it’s not got enough flash to steal Lightning McQueen’s thunder.

107279-fullWho Should Win: Inside Out

Who Will Win: Inside Out

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: I would have said Inside Out, hands down; but Anomalisa could be the spoiler… I feel like it’s getting the short end of the stick though; I think they should have put it with the dramas.

Who Should Win: Anomalisa

Who Will Win: Inside Out

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Paul Dano – Love and Mercy, Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation, Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies, Michael Shannon – 99 Homes, Sylvester Stallone – Creed

CALEB:
Thoughts: This is an understated category that could go either way. If this was the academy, I’d have no doubt that Mark Rylance would take the globe, but given the sexier sheen of the HFPA I think it’s far more likely to go to Idris Elba or Sylvester Stallone. Michael Shannon is an incredibly underrated actor and despite not having seen 99 Homes, I’d say he’s earned the gold.

Who Should Win: Idris Elba

Who Will Win: Sylvester Stallone is almost a surefire win given his Hollywood legacy/reputation. The HFPA has always been more about pleasing the masses than it is picking the best roles and Stallone would be one mom, dad, and even your kids would celebrate.

ARTHUR:Golden Globe Awards
Thoughts: This may be the toughest and strongest category on the cards with four potential winners walking away; I feel like Shannon is the dark horse. Rylance and Stallone have to be seen as the favorites with Dano and Elba being set up as the spoilers. Elba is an evil, evil powerhouse in Beasts of No Nation. But, Stallone would be a feel good moment and a way to recognize a very profitable career marked with two well-loved characters. And, I think Stallone deserves it.

Who Should Win: Idris Elba

Who Will Win: I think the moment for Sylvester Stallone will be too great to miss and would be great for highlight reels in the coming days and years.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Jane Fonda – Youth, Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight, Helen Mirren – Trumbo, Alicia Vikander – Ex-Machina, Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

CALEB:
Thoughts: If this were the academy Jane Fonda and Helen Mirren would have the legacy vote, but in this show that clout just isn’t quite as Golden Globe Awardsstrong. Alicia Vikander is my favorite up and comer, but it’s hard to imagine her taking the award over Jennifer Jason Leigh. Kate Winslet turned in one of the strongest performances of Steve Jobs, but for
some reason I can’t help but see the actors from that film go home empty handed.

Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander

Who Will Win: I’m making my Hail Mary gut pick and going with Vikander for the win

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: Leigh has the momentum with her return to the big screen. Fonda’s appearance in Youth is short, but sweet; yet, I don’t think it’s enough to leave with the prize. Mirren’s role as the gossip queen Heda Hopper is one of the strongest aspects of the flawed Trumbo, but she’s nowhere near as strong as Cranston. I think Winslet is the strongest competition for Leigh, but don’t count Vikander out. As I mentioned earlier, she’s had a break out year and she has to be regarded as the dark horse spoiler here.

Who Should Win: Alicia Vikander

Who Will Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh

Best Original Score
Nominees: Carter Burwell – Carol, Alexandre Desplat – The Danish Girl, Ennio Morricone – The Hateful Eight, Daniel Pemberton – Steve Jobs, Ryuichi Sokomoto & Alva Noto – The Revenant.

CALEB:
Thoughts: The battle for best score almost always comes down to a duel between giants of the likes of John Williams, Hans Zimmer, or James Newton Howard. Normally Alexandre Desplat would probably have this award in the bag, but no score can match the return of Ennio Morricone to the western genre. Even if you don’t love the score, you can’t deny it makes for a great story for the HFPA to rally around.Ennio_Morricone_Cannes_2012

Who Should Win: Ennio Morricone

Who Will Win: Have you heard The Hateful Eight score? Not only would a win for Ennio Morricone be deserved, but it would also be a great story of the prodigal composer for the globes to celebrate.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: Desplat is no stranger to the Golden Globe awards show, owning several nominations and one win at the Globes. Carter Burwell’s score for Carol is well regarded though. The other strong contender is Morricone’s score for The Hateful Eight; Morricone is also familiar with the weight of the trophy having scored several nominations and two wins at the Globes.

Who Should Win: Ennio Morricone

Who Will Win: Ennio Morricone

Best Original Song
Nominees: “Love Me Like You Do” – Fifty Shades of Grey, “One Kind of Love” – Love and Mercy, “See You Again” – Furious 7, “Simple Song #3” – Youth, “Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

CALEB:
Thoughts: Yikes! This category is terrible, plain and simple. I’ve listened to all of these songs at least twice and none of them really pack a punch. “Writing’s on the Wall” may be the most forgettable Bond song of the hqdefaultentire Craig and Bronson eras. I don’t have much else to say except “FOR PAUL!”

Who Should Win: “See You Again”


Who Will Win: “
See You Again” Paul Walker may never have had a shot at an award of this caliber in his career, but I think The Golden Globes will take a moment to celebrate and remember his life. His tragic death is more than worthy of an commemorative award.

ARTHUR:
Thoughts: None of these songs feel like they stand out. Sam Smith’s Bond ballad feels like a song from the past. It isn’t the wonder that was Adele’s “Skyfall”. This whole category feels lacking though. I think the two big commercial hits have to be the favorites here. Particularly, “See You Again” which got played everywhere and is also seen as a tribute to Paul Walker and I think that plays well to a lot of people especially at the Golden Globe Awards.

Who Should Win: “See You Again”

Who Will Win: “See You Again”, I think the emotion of the win will be enough to get the trophy in their hands; especially if we see a live performance or something. It would be a fitting compliment to a memorium segment.

 

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